Driven by the Wind: TxLege Update Week 3

The State of the State, Top Priorities, and Property Taxes

In the first chapter of his epistle, James—the brother of Jesus—tell us that a man “who doubts is like a wave of the sea that is driven and tossed by the wind. … He is a double-minded man, unstable in all his ways.”

That is the vibe I got from the Texas Legislature this week. I know it is early, but despite Gov. Abbott’s designating several issues for emergency consideration by the Legislature in his State of the State address and Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick’s announcing his Top 25 priorities, the Legislature as a whole seems as if it is being driven by the wind and doesn’t yet know which way it is heading.

Property Taxes

Someone who follows things closely at the Legislature mentioned this week that “several lawmakers believe that the ongoing "buydown" approach is too big of a commitment to continue to maintain for just "a few hundred dollars off a bill that is only felt for a less than two year period" and that better investments are those for infrastructure because "they improve property values, will lower water and sewage bills, and ensure Texas' survival."

Lawmakers are right that property tax relief is expensive. But the main reason for this is the poor job the Texas Legislature has done of restraining local spending that in turn makes property tax relief more expensive. But that does not mean that members of the Legislature should give up on meaningful tax relief and devote the $23.7 billion budget surplus to new spending. I’ll have more on this Wednesday, but for now will note there is already a lot more money devoted to new spending in the Texas budget than there is to property tax relief.

The State of the State

Gov. Abbott put a charge into those seeking relief from property taxes, calling on the Legislature to “use at least $10 billion of the state’s budget surplus for property tax relief.” That is good news, since the Texas Senate has only committed $6 billion to property tax relief and the Texas House only $6.5 billion. Still with a $23.7 budget surplus, taxpayers should ask for and expect more.

Abbott also made school choice an emergency item, which puts that issue on a fast track. Texans must do something about the poor state of public education in our state and school choice certainly is an option, but as I noted last week there is room for improvement with the current iteration of school choose working its way through the Legislature.

One of the reasons that our legislature leaders aren’t putting more into property tax relief is because they are intent on spending a lot of money this session. Abbott joined in with this when he called for more spending to pay for teacher pay raises, water infrastructure, and career training. There is already about $5 billion for teacher pay increases that Patrick has called for, and it is possible that a similar amount might be put into water. There is also another $5 billion that Abbott and Patrick have promised for the Texas Energy Fund (which already received $5 billion in 2023) and probably a few billion more for the proposed Texas Nuclear Energy Fund.

Many of the bills on Lt. Gov. Patrick’s Top 25 list follow down this path. There is money to create the Dementia Prevention & Research Institute, about $500 million for film subsidies, money for water infrastructure, and more.

There are a number of good bills on Patrick’s list as well. He wants to protect prayer and guard against inappropriate books in government schools, stop noncitizens from voting, stop taxpayer funded lobbying, and stop China from buying up Texas.

Patrick has also gotten behind the Texas DOGE legislation, SB 14, designed to improve government efficiency. Yet, if we have learned anything from Elon Musk yet it is that we don’t need more efficient government, we need less government. The Administrative State is putting up quite a battle in DC, and it will do the same thing in Texas. The best way to take it on is not through legislation but through swift executive action. I know Patrick can’t do anything directly about that; that is Abbott’s job. Once it is filed, we’ll have a better idea of how SB 14 might take on the Deep State here in Texas.

Conclusion

Tax cuts and big spending. Cutting the bureaucracy and creating more bureaucracy. It’s tough to predict how this will turn out by June 2. But in looking toward the end of session, we should consider that being driven by the wind can result in good outcomes when the wind is blowing in the right direction.

For instance, in November the electoral winds clearly moved the United States and Texas in a more conservative, anti-administrative state direction. In Texas, this was personified by the election of 25 new Republican legislators, many of whom won their primaries over establishment Republicans.

Nationally, President Donald Trump’s executive orders, the confirmation of many of his nominees by the U.S. Seante, and Elon Musk’s DOGE confirm the wind is still blowing in the same direction.

In Texas, the direction of the wind is not so certain. A minority of House Republicans defied the voters and the Republican party by giving more power to Democrats than they have had since losing the House in 2003. Early versions of the state budget portend more spending and less tax relief.

Texans should pray that members of the Legislature and our statewide elected officials take note of these early indicators, close haul the sails on the ship of state, and prepare to beat into the headwinds that too often have moved our state away from liberty.