Texas Property Taxes Expected to Increase by $2.5 Billion This Year
The $51 Billion Lie Exposed
Wherever you turn these days, Texas politicians are claiming that they are spending $51 billion on property tax relief.
The problem with the $51 billion figure is that it has no connection to reality. For two reasons.
First, if there really was $51 billion of property tax relief in the two-year budget it would eliminate 60% of all school property taxes; Figure 1 shows the school property tax levy for 2024 was $42 billion. That is not going to happen. Second, the money that the Legislature claims is going to property tax relief is actually being spent on public schools. And as we’ll see below, the correlation between government spending on public schools and property tax relief is tenuous.
Since 2019, the Texas Legislature has increased spending on public schools by about $23 billion in the name of property tax relief. Figure 1 shows what has happened to Texans’ property tax burden during that period: property taxes have increased $23.6 billion, or 37%.
In other words, the $23 billion of increased spending on public schools funded by taxpayers has led to a large increase on the average Texan’s property tax bill. My guess is that few Texas property owners are feeling much relief. Especially when considering that they are paying for whatever relief they are getting through other taxes, fees, higher prices, or reduced wages.
Which leads us to 2025. The Texas Legislature is at it again. They have put around $6 billion in the proposed budget for “property tax relief” for our 2025 property tax bills that are due January 31 of next year. Add this to the previous $23 billion and we get $29 billion, not $51 billion. The Legislature is claiming that $51 billion is the cost of maintaining the $29 billion from its previous efforts. Even if this is true, the cost is rising only because the Texas Legislature continues to allow school districts and local governments to support runaway spending with ever increasing property taxes. This is not property tax relief.
Legislators are providing “relief” this session the exact same way they have previously. They are proposing to increase spending on public schools and reduce our tax rates and/or increase the homestead exemption (we don’t know which yet) while allowing schools, cities, counties, and special districts to increase property taxes to the extent they will likely wipe away whatever relief we might have received. And then some.
Using recent trends in property tax revenue growth and property tax relief efforts, I project that the statewide total tax levy for all Texans will increase by $2,502,347,747 this year. Which means the average property owner will see an increase of about 3%.
Continuing this effort year after year and calling it “relief” is insanity.
There is only one way to reduce the property tax burden on Texans: stop the runaway growth of state and local government spending. This is simple but has proven politically impossible because Texas politicians at the state and local level refuse to stop spending our money.
If they ever decide to change their ways, here is how they could cut property taxes in half in as little as eight years:
Freeze School Property Taxes
Limit State Spending Growth to Less Than 2% Per Year
Buy Down School M&O Property Taxes Using ALL of the State’s Budget Surplus
Require Cities, Counties, and Special Purpose Districts to Seek Voter Approval for any Revenue Increases
Four simple steps. But for this to happen it requires statewide elected officials and a majority of Texas senators and Texas House members who believe in reducing the size and scope of government.
And there is only one way to get such people in office: Texans need to head to the polls.